After winning a closely-fought LDP leadership election on September 27, Ishiba Shigeru has officially become Japan’s new Prime Minister. As has been pointed out in news articles and opinion pieces, Ishiba is notably more progressive on the topic of marriage equality than his predecessors, but among LGBTQ+ advocates in Japan it was a sense of relief that prevailed, rather than a strong feeling of hope.
When asked about the possibility of allowing marriages between people of the same legal gender, former prime ministers Abe Shinzō, Suga Yoshihide, and Kishida Fumio all replied along the same general lines throughout their tenure. First, they would state that because Article 24 of Japan’s constitution states that “marriage shall be based only on the mutual consent of both sexes”, the constitution does not “envision” or “suppose” the possibility of same-sex marriage. In other words, they would argue that constitutional reform is a prerequisite to marriage equality. As to the possibility of introducing such constitutional reform, they would caution that “careful consideration” is necessary on the topic, because it “concerns the foundation of the family.”
Meanwhile, Shigeru Ishiba’s latest book, “Conservative Politician: My Policies, My Destiny”, which was released in late August, includes a passage where he argues that the topic of same-sex marriage should not be discussed from the perspective of right- or left-wing politics, or personal feelings towards it, but rather from the perspective of respect for “fundamental human rights” as enshrined in the country’s constitution. This view, which rather than using the wording of the constitution to justify the current state of affairs instead suggests that this status quo actually presents a constitutional problem, stands in stark contrast to the words of his predecessors.
In a recent interview on TBS Radio, Ishiba said that if LGBT couples suffer disadvantages due to the lack of recognition for same-sex marriage, relief ought to be provided. When the host asked him to clarify whether “relief” could entail opening up the institution of marriage to this group, Ishiba responded affirmatively.
Ishiba argues that same-sex marriage should be discussed from the perspective of respect for fundamental human rights, as enshrined in the constitution
After LDP lawmaker Sugita Mio penned an infamous opinion piece in 2018, arguing against LGBT-friendly policymaking because LGBT couples are supposedly “unproductive” in terms of childrearing, the party eventually distanced itself from her statements, but Ishiba went a step further. Speaking on TV show News 23, he took a distinctly different stance on the matter to then-incumbent PM Abe. While Abe sought to explain away Sugita’s remarks by saying the 51-year-old politician was “still young”, Ishiba criticized her and even questioned why she was placed so high on the party’s proportional representation list in the Chugoku Region.
In spite of the above, most LGBTQ+ advocates in Japan have been cautious in their welcome for Ishiba’s win in the LDP’s presidential race. Certainly, there is a sense of relief that Ishiba overcame his main rival, the deeply conservative Takaichi Sanae; a Takaichi win could have meant a monumental setback to progress that has been made in past years. It remains to be seen, however, how forward-thinking and proactive an Ishiba-led LDP and an Ishiba-led Japan will really be on the topic of LGBT rights.
Responding to a survey from the Japan Alliance for LGBT Legislation (J-ALL) and Marriage For All Japan in the lead-up to the LDP election, Ishiba did not unequivocally voice his support for legalizing marriage equality. Instead, he responded that “while it is presumed that the public’s understanding [on the matter] will continue to progress, marriage is something stipulated in the constitution, and I would like to make future decisions with reference to judicial decisions.” These words can certainly still be interpreted as indicating a desire to implement marriage equality, but they are notably cautious and seem to suggest that Ishiba will wait until a Supreme Court ruling is delivered—which people involved in the ongoing court cases on this issue expect to happen in 2026 at the earliest—instead of legislating proactively to provide the “relief” he had talked about on TBS Radio.
Even if Ishiba may personally favor more socially progressive policymaking on matters concerning gender and sexuality, he likely also wants to refrain from further antagonizing his party’s conservative wing. His cabinet and party leadership picks have already driven a wedge between him and this wing of the party, and if he continues to rock the boat by enthusiastically pushing for policies that are strongly opposed by conservatives, he risks sparking mutiny within his own party. Consequently, it seems likely that Ishiba will take a slow and cautious approach, at least for the time being.
A cautious approach to socially progressive policymaking is likely if Ishiba wishes to avoid further antagonizing LDP conservatives
About a week into Ishiba’s tenure, this cautious approach can already be seen. During a plenary session of the House of Councillors on October 8, CDP politician Tanabu Masayo seized upon the opportunity to remind the new Prime Minister of his recent statements on same-sex marriage. After bringing up what Ishiba had said on TBS Radio and written in his book, Tanabu asked Ishiba whether it would be correct to assume the PM would work towards the implementation of same-sex marriage. Rather than the straightforward “yes” many may have hoped for—though few may have expected—Ishiba responded somewhat evasively. Unlike his three predecessors, Ishiba did not bring up Article 24 of the constitution, but he did say that “same-sex marriage is a matter concerning the family values of each and every citizen, and the government deems it necessary to pay close attention to the opinions of all strata of society, the discussions in the Diet, and the court cases relating to same-sex marriage”.
On the one hand, Ishiba’s response is certainly not indicative of a proactive approach towards marriage equality. On the other hand, his words do leave a bit more room for such policymaking than the statements of Abe, Suga, and Kishida did. Advocacy group Marriage For All Japan responded on X (formerly Twitter) by stating it won’t give up and encouraging people to continue pushing for marriage equality in the lead-up to the upcoming general election.
On the topic of LGBTQ+ politics, Ishiba’s words have so far been different from those of the last three LDP presidents. Whether he will sail a very different course in terms of actual policymaking, however, is a wholly different matter, and will likely depend on how the LDP’s intra-party politics develop in the coming months, especially once the dust has settled down after the upcoming general election. As long as Ishiba feels the need to at least somewhat appease the LDP’s conservative flank, he is unlikely to undertake bold action on marriage equality, trans rights, a law to ban discrimination, or other matters concerning gender and sexuality. Ishiba’s personal views may nonetheless influence the party’s decisions in more subtle ways; he may at least get his wish regarding Sugita Mio, who is at risk of losing the party’s endorsement entirely in this month’s election over her role in an unrelated corruption scandal.
Emily Boon is a researcher at the LeidenAsiaCentre. She has a BA Japanese Studies and an MA Asian Studies from Leiden University, and spent a year as an exchange student at Waseda University's Graduate School of Political Science. Her research focuses primarily on Japanese local politics and LGBTQ+ politics.
